Wed. Dec 6th, 2023
    New Income Tax Cuts on the Horizon: A Closer Look at the Impact

    Pressure is mounting on Jeremy Hunt to cut taxes in Wednesday’s autumn statement due to evidence that almost 4 million UK workers are to be dragged into paying income tax for the first time. Rishi Sunak’s recent announcement of potential personal tax cuts has further fueled expectations of impending changes in the tax landscape. However, while tax cuts may bring relief to some, they could have profound implications for the economy and society as a whole.

    According to research from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) poverty charity, the income tax freeze, which pulls more workers into higher tax brackets as their earnings rise, is projected to bring 3.9 million workers into paying income tax by the middle of the decade. This would disproportionately affect low-income households, with two-thirds of those affected coming from the lowest-income half of households in Britain. Although the freeze is expected to raise significant revenue for the government, it is likely to exacerbate income inequality, with the top 10% richest families projected to pay more than the lowest half combined.

    While there is hope among Tory MPs that Chancellor Rishi Sunak will honor his pledge to reduce the basic rate of income tax, economists warn that a reduction in tax rates could lead to a significant loss in revenue for the government. The Office for Budget Responsibility predicts that the freeze will result in 3.2 million more taxpayers than if the policy was abandoned, generating billions of pounds in additional revenue. This additional revenue could potentially be used to increase benefits for the poorest households or invest in public services, as suggested by Peter Matejic, chief analyst at the JRF.

    However, the impact of the tax freeze goes beyond just the number of taxpayers. Analysis by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) reveals that workers on the national living wage will be worse off, with their take-home pay diminishing over time due to the freeze. Coupled with rising living costs, the average worker’s income growth is projected to be minimal.

    As the government weighs its options for tax cuts, it faces a delicate balancing act between stimulating economic growth and addressing the needs of different income groups. A significant cut in the basic rate of income tax may provide short-term relief but could potentially have long-term consequences. Ultimately, the autumn statement will unveil the government’s strategy for taxation and will set the course for economic recovery and societal well-being.


    1. What is the income tax freeze?

    The income tax freeze refers to a policy that keeps income tax thresholds unchanged, allowing more workers to be pulled into paying higher rates of income tax as their earnings increase.

    2. How many workers are projected to start paying income tax?

    According to research by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, approximately 3.9 million UK workers are expected to start paying income tax by the middle of the decade due to the income tax freeze.

    3. Who will be most affected by the income tax freeze?

    The income tax freeze is expected to have a greater impact on low-income households, with two-thirds of the affected workers coming from the lowest-income half of households in Britain.

    4. What are the potential consequences of income tax cuts?

    Income tax cuts may provide short-term relief for taxpayers, but they could also lead to a loss in government revenue and exacerbate income inequality. The long-term implications depend on the specific tax cut measures implemented.